I do not have a crystal ball. And, I do not know how it all plays out. But the only question is how does it exactly all play out? Not just in Greece, which is currently on the front burner, but throughout the entire developed world? Who will be the combatants?
Prior to the most recent events in Greece, their newly elected leaders traveled to Russia to have a meeting with Vladimir Putin. Let me summarize this for you. “Mr. Putin, Sir, we have a bunch of spoiled, privileged government workers and pensioners back home that are demanding payment for either sitting around and doing nothing, or reeking havoc on small business owners, tourists and Gyro street vendors. You see they turn each one upside down and shake to see how many Euros falls from their pockets. Lately, it is not enough to support their privileged positions in our Greek society. Vlad, can I call you Vlad? You see, The Troika does not wish to pay for their pensions any longer, our citizens have no more resources to tax, and so we were wondering if Russia wouldn’t mind too much paying them?” And they came back without a deal, huh?
I have been saying for years that the real war will not be fought between Germany and Greece, not between the Troika and the Greeks, or between the bankers and the Greeks. it will be young unemployed Greeks and older pension and asset holding Greeks. When things go bust with Germany, and Putin refuses to fund their pensions, the government employees will come armed with pitchforks after non-government employees, who are broke. At some point the non government pension holders leave the country, or fight back. No other option. The same thing is inevitable in the US. Anti-austerity measures reward the same government employees who, for decades, squandered the wealth of their collective nations. And rewarding those that have financed their complete malfeasance by exchanging their worthless government bonds with currency through Quantitative Easing (QE) rewards idiocy and punishes savers and those far more prudent with their investment dollars. Government did not have the balls nor the mandate to collect the money when they should have and they certainly don’t deserve it now.
Being born in the United States, I remember learning about the US Civil War in history class. Where often times, it was said, brother fought against brother, neighbor against neighbor. You either believed in the Union cause, or the Confederate cause. And, while blood may be thicker than water, bloodlines did not transcend alliances in a bitter and highly divisive war of attrition. Young Greeks can have their votes, all the referendums they want. They can kick out all of the outsiders – the Germans, the IMF, the evil bankers. But, in the end, they will find that their true enemy, the real problem, is behind their own proverbial front door. And at that moment, battle lines will be drawn and their own Civil War will begin.
So, no matter the headlines of the last couple weeks, or the coming months. Whether there is a bailout, or not. You can ignore all of it. This wasn’t over in 2010, not in 2012, and the referendum certainly did not end this. This will not end, and the future of Greece will not be written, until the Greeks fight it out once and for all.